Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 1st (International Observation) In 2018, these six suspense will affect the world.

　　Xinhua news agency reporter

　　In 2017, the momentum of world economic recovery is improving, while the political and security situation remains complicated. Some old problems have been solved, but new problems keep emerging. Looking forward to 2018, what suspense will the world face?

　　Suspense 1: How does the Middle East Chaos 3.0 Era evolve?

　　With the collapse of the extremist organization "Islamic State", the main contradiction in the Middle East has changed, from anti-terrorism to the opposition between the Shiite and Sunni camps.

　　If the so-called "Arab Spring" that began in 2010 triggered domestic chaos in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria, which constituted the "1.0 era of chaos in the Middle East", the emergence of the "Islamic State" in 2014 and its "capital" in Raqqa, Syria meant that the chaos in the Middle East entered a "2.0 era" characterized by the struggle between counter-terrorism forces and terrorist organizations.

　　By the end of 2017, the collapse of the "Islamic State" is a foregone conclusion, ending the "2.0 era". Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s position has been consolidated, and Shiite forces such as Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon who support him are rejoicing, while Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia are increasingly worried about the emergence of a "Shiite crescent zone" from Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus to Beirut in the Middle East.

　　In 2017, Saudi Arabia and other countries broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar, Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri resigned, and Yemeni Houthi armed forces fired missiles at Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, which highlighted the overall deterioration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

　　In 2018, with the help of anti-Iranian forces such as the United States and Israel, how the "Middle East Chaos 3.0 Era" is evolving affects all parties.

　　Suspense 2: Where is the fire of "TongRumen"

　　The US prosecutor’s investigation of the "TongRumen" incident has made significant progress recently. President Trump’s former national security assistant Flynn pleaded guilty, and the investigation spearhead gradually pointed to people around Trump.

　　But so far, the published and confirmed information is not enough to constitute a substantial blow to Trump himself. Analysts believe that unless the Republican Party loses its majority status in the House of Representatives after the mid-term congressional elections in 2018, it is unlikely that Trump will be impeached for "TongRumen". On the other hand, the "TongRumen" survey is undoubtedly not conducive to the Republican midterm election, and its suspense has become a major variable in American politics.

　　In addition, although Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump seem to be "appreciate each other", under the pressure of the "TongRumen" investigation and the mid-term election of the US Congress, the prospect of bilateral relations in 2018 is still full of uncertainty.

　　Suspense 3: Can the anti-terrorism situation in the West improve?

　　In 2017, the anti-terrorism situation in the West is still grim. From London to Manchester, from Paris to Barcelona, from Helsinki to Stockholm, terrorist attacks in European countries are frequent and hard to prevent.

　　The United States has not been spared. On October 1st, Las Vegas, 59 people were killed and 527 injured when lone wolf gunmen strafed the crowd. On October 31, a car crash occurred in new york, killing 8 people; On November 5th, a church shooting in Texas caused more than 40 deaths and injuries … …

　　In 2018, the security situation in western countries is still not optimistic.

　　First of all, the "Islamic State" is dead but not stiff, and some remnants may form new terrorist organizations with smaller scale and different forms. The "Islamic State" elements scattered from Iraq and Syria have returned to other countries, which has become a security risk; Secondly, terrorist attacks are increasingly "localized". Judging from the identity of the people who launched terrorist attacks in Europe and America in the past, a considerable number of them are descendants of immigrants; Moreover, the means of terrorist attacks are more diverse, and the "lone wolf" attacks have increased significantly.

　　Under the background of the intensification of social division in the United States, the deepening of internal contradictions in Europe and the transfer of terrorists from the Middle East, what means can the West have to get rid of the predicament of counter-terrorism?

　　Suspense 4: Can the DPRK-US confrontation turn around?

　　On December 22, 2017, the UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution to impose more severe sanctions on North Korea.

　　In 2017, North Korea repeatedly tested ballistic missiles in violation of Security Council resolutions, and conducted its sixth nuclear test on September 3. North Korea’s accelerated research and development of nuclear guidance poses a threat to regional peace and stability and has been unanimously condemned by the international community.

　　But at the same time, it should be noted that the responsibility for causing tension in Northeast Asia is not only on the North Korean side. After Trump took office, he regarded North Korea as the "primary security threat" of the United States, and replaced the former government’s "strategic patience" policy with the policy of "extreme pressure and intervention", and even publicly threatened to use force against the DPRK when he spoke at the UN General Assembly.

　　In view of the situation on the peninsula, China put forward the "double suspension" initiative of North Korea’s suspension of nuclear guidance activities and the suspension of large-scale joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea, and the "two-track parallel" idea of promoting the denuclearization of the peninsula and establishing a peace mechanism on the peninsula in parallel. Russia also put forward the idea of solving the peninsula problem step by step. On this basis, on July 4, 2017, China and Russia issued a joint statement, proposing a "road map" to solve the peninsula problem.

　　Both the DPRK and the United States should realize that a tough confrontation will only plunge the situation on the peninsula into a vicious circle, and the possible serious consequences will be unbearable for both sides, and will also cause incalculable damage to the stability of the whole Northeast Asia. Only by implementing the "road map" proposed by China and Russia can we truly resolve the crisis and safeguard regional peace and stability.

　　Suspense 5: Will US economic and financial policy risks spill over?

　　In 2017, the world economy performed the best in the past decade. The recovery momentum is expected to continue in 2018, but a major risk lies in the possible spillover effects of changes in US economic and financial policies.

　　At the monetary level, there is uncertainty about the strength and pace of the Fed’s interest rate hike and "table contraction". Once the inflationary pressure in the United States increases, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, which will have a significant impact on global cross-border capital flows, asset prices, exchange rate stability and so on.

　　On the financial level, the large-scale tax cuts introduced by the Trump administration may cause some funds to flow back to the United States, which will bring challenges to the capital flow and exchange rate stability of emerging economies.

　　On the trade level, under the background that the United States will usher in the mid-term congressional elections, the Trump administration may continue to play "trade cards" and "economic populist cards", which will lead to intensified international trade frictions.

　　Suspense 6: Who will win the first prize for "quantum hegemony"

　　At present, the passwords used in sensitive fields such as national defense and finance may take 100 years for classical computers to crack, while quantum computers may be broken in one second after they are really available. The industry believes that to achieve "quantum hegemony", that is, the computing power of quantum computers exceeds that of classical computers, it is necessary to be able to truly manipulate about 50 qubits. It is possible to make a major breakthrough in this regard in 2018.

　　On November 30, 2017, the British magazine Nature published two breakthroughs at the same time: researchers at Harvard University in the United States announced the realization of 51 qubits; Researchers at the University of Maryland announced the realization of 53 qubits.

　　All parties are chasing after each other in the number of qubits, but no one has claimed to have achieved "quantum hegemony". It turns out that "quantity" of light is not enough, but also "quality", that is, these qubits are interrelated through quantum entanglement and other means, so that they can be effectively used for quantum calculation.

　　In this regard, scientists in China have made some important achievements. In May, 2017, researchers from China University of Science and Technology announced the entanglement of 10 superconducting qubits, which made a breakthrough in the research of quantum computers based on superconducting systems.

　　In 2018, the competition for "quantum hegemony" who can win the top spot is not only eye-catching in the scientific and technological circles, but also a sign of the comprehensive strength competition of big countries. (Participating in reporters: Zhao Zhuoyun, Liu Jian, Chen Jing, Du Jing, Huang Kun)

　　Beijing yuyuantan park cherry blossom ice cream has become popular on social platforms, attracting many tourists to buy it; Sichuan Sanxingdui Museum launched Wenchuang ice cream with bronze mask as the prototype, which sold out as soon as it went on the market. Since the beginning of this year, ice cream with diverse shapes and rich sense of design has appeared one after another, bringing more choices to consumers and becoming a hot topic on the Internet.

　　Ice cream has become online celebrity, reflecting the escalating consumption concept. With the rapid development of economy and society and the continuous improvement of living standards, people’s demand for ice cream has gone beyond simply quenching their thirst. New demand gives birth to new market space. Keen merchants capture the increasingly personalized and diversified needs, strengthen product research and development and marketing, and quickly turn them into selling points. For example, the novel tastes such as egg yolk ice cream and stinky tofu ice cream fit the consumption psychology of young people; "Low sugar and low calorie" ice cream conforms to the pursuit of healthy diet and weight control of some groups; Sincere and full of materials, with exquisite modeling, means the choice of quality … … A small ice cream can not only satisfy the taste enjoyment, but also carry multiple functions.

　　In recent years, the scale of China’s ice cream market has been expanding. However, it should be noted that online celebrity ice cream has promoted the development of the industry, while some products are also facing controversy. Some products only have high-end pricing, and there is no matching quality. The news that some online celebrity ice creams were found to have exceeded the standard in sampling inspection also caused consumers’ concerns about health problems. In addition, after the popularity of Wenchuang ice cream, all scenic spots, large and small, competed to launch similar products and fell into a pattern of low-level imitation and lack of innovation. In fact, some online celebrity ice creams have quietly withdrawn from the market before the end of summer.

　　The "flash in the pan" of some online celebrity ice cream is thought-provoking. It should be said that many online celebrity products have similar marketing paths: developing and designing products according to young people’s preferences, strengthening online marketing and promoting products, especially taking live broadcasts and sharing posts on social platforms to attract traffic and stimulate consumers to buy. In such a commercial chain, the quality and service of the products themselves are easily overlooked. Therefore, some online celebrity products seem to be able to create considerable sales performance in a short time, but they can’t stand the test of time. Facts have repeatedly proved that consumers ultimately value the quality of products and services, and marketing can only be icing on the cake, not the fundamental strategy to win market competition.

　　The popularity of products is a process of natural spread of word of mouth. Relaxing the pursuit of quality and focusing on the shortcut of marketing is tantamount to giving up the basics. In this regard, grasping quality and cultivating internal strength is the long-term solution to win consumers. For example, after Liuzhou snail powder was well received by consumers, many local measures were taken simultaneously to form a joint force, which promoted the snail powder to become a local characteristic industry from online celebrity snacks and promoted the development of the real economy. Behind this, related companies have been exploring the standardized production of snail powder for many years and accumulated strong R&D capabilities and production strength. Observing the products that have been successfully precipitated from the flow of online celebrity, it is inseparable from hard work and long-term efforts.

　　No matter how novel the design is and how fashionable the packaging is, quality and service are the key variables that affect the survival and development of enterprises. Online celebrity economy and other new formats and models bear the needs of the people for a better life and are associated with new economic growth points. Only by better converting online celebrity traffic into long-term reputation can enterprises win the trust of consumers and gain market share, thus promoting the sustained and healthy development of the industry.

　　People’s Daily (August 11, 2021, 07 edition)